NBA Matchup Projections for Jan. 31, 2026
NBA Matchup Projections for Jan. 31, 2026
Six games highlight the NBA slate for Jan. 31 2026. Team records and recent form are discussed below. As usual, prop projections and confidence levels are provided for key players (e.g. points, rebounds, assists) as guidance.
Note on confidence ratings: Projections are accompanied by confidence (e.g. “85%” for high confidence). These projections are based on statistical models and should not be taken as guarantees.
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets – 12:00 p.m. ET
Record context & news: San Antonio (32–15) is one of the West’s top teams, led by Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs are strong defensively and are paced by 24.3 PPG and 11.2 RPG from Wembanyama. Charlotte (21–28) has been surging with a five-game win streak, thanks in part to rebounding prowess (45.7 RPG) and scoring from Brandon Miller (23.4 PPG last 10 games).
Key players & projections
V. Wembanyama (SAS) – PTS 24.0, REB 11.0, AST 3.0 (very high confidence)
LaMelo Ball (CHA) – PTS 21.0, AST 7.0, REB 5.0 (high confidence)
Brandon Miller (CHA) – PTS 23.0, AST 2.0, REB 4.0 (high confidence)
Stephon Castle (SAS) – PTS 15.0, AST 6.0, STL 1.5 (moderate confidence)
De’Aaron Fox (SAS) – PTS 20.0, AST 6.0, REB 4.0 (moderate confidence)
Notable injuries: Spurs: Harrison Ingram (Out), David Jones-Garcia (Out), Jeremy Sochan (Out), Stanley Umude (Out). Hornets: Josh Green (Probable), PJ Hall (Out), Liam McNeeley (Out), Mason Plumlee (Out), Antonio Reeves (Out), KJ Simpson (Out).
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 p.m. ET
Record context & news: Atlanta (20–26) has struggled with consistency and is 8–24 in the East. The Hawks rely on Onyeka Okongwu (16.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and recent scoring from Nickeil Alexander-Walker (19.7 PPG last 10). Indiana (25–21) shoots only 44.3% but plays close games at home; Andrew Nembhard (17.4 PPG, 7.4 APG) and Pascal Siakam (20.8 PPG last 10) are key.
Key players & projections
Pascal Siakam (IND) – PTS 21.0, REB 8.0, AST 3.0 (high confidence)
Andrew Nembhard (IND) – PTS 18.0, AST 7.0, REB 4.0 (moderate confidence)
Jalen Johnson (ATL) – PTS 12.0, REB 5.0, AST 2.0 (high confidence)
Notable injuries: Hawks: N’Faly Dante (Out), RayJ Dennis (Doubtful), Nikola Djurisic (Doubtful), Caleb Houstan (Doubtful), Jalen Johnson (Questionable), Onyeka Okongwu (Out), Kristaps Porzingis (Out), Zaccharie Risacher (Questionable). Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton (Out), Taelon Peter (Doubtful), Ethan Thompson (Doubtful), Obi Toppin (Out).
New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 p.m. ET
Record context & news: New Orleans (12–37) is near the bottom of the West, allowing 121.2 PPG. They still rebound well (44.0 RPG) and turn opponents over 15+ times. Zion Williamson (21 PTS, 11 REB last game) is the focus, backed by JJ Redick’s sharpshooting off the bench. Philadelphia (25–21) just beat Milwaukee 139–122; Paul George scored 32. The Sixers average 116.6 PPG but struggle with efficiency (45.8%).
Key players & projections
Zion Williamson (NOP) – PTS 22.0, REB 10.0, AST 3.0 (high confidence)
Tyrese Maxey (PHI) – PTS 25.0, AST 6.0, REB 4.0 (high confidence)
Joel Embiid (PHI) – PTS 30.0, REB 11.0, AST 5.0 (very high confidence)
Brandon Ingram (NOP) – PTS 18.0, REB 6.0, AST 4.0 (moderate confidence)
Keegan Murray (SAS) – PTS 13.0, REB 5.0, AST 2.0 (high confidence)
Notable injuries: Pelicans: Dejounte Murray (Out). 76ers: Charles Bassey (Doubtful), MarJon Beauchamp (Doubtful), Johni Broome (Doubtful), Quentin Grimes (Probable), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Available).
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 p.m. ET
Record context & news: Minnesota (29–19) ranks 5th in scoring (119.0 PPG). Julius Randle dropped 31 PTS in a win over Dallas, and the Wolves shoot 48.1% overall, allowing 114.1 PPG. Memphis (18–27) struggles offensively (45.4% shooting); Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 26 last game, but Memphis is often out-rebounded. The Grizzlies forced Charlotte to 35.2% 3PT and should focus on interior defense.
Key players & projections
Julius Randle (MIN) – PTS 25.0, REB 12.0, AST 4.0 (very high confidence)
Anthony Edwards (MIN) – PTS 28.0, AST 5.0, REB 5.0 (very high confidence)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM) – PTS 23.0, REB 6.0, STL 2.0 (high confidence)
Desmond Bane (MEM) – PTS 21.0, AST 4.0, REB 4.0 (moderate confidence)
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) – PTS 19.0, REB 8.0, AST 3.0 (moderate confidence)
Notable injuries: Timberwolves: Enrique Freeman (Out), Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out), Rocco Zikarsky (Out). Grizzlies: no notable injuries listed.
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat – 8:00 p.m. ET
Record context & news: Chicago (25–23) has lost 3 straight but still averages 118.7 PPG over the last 10 games. Nikola Vucevic is at 17.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and Coby White leads in fast-break scoring. Miami (30–18) is 6-4 in its last 10, averaging 121.3 PPG in that span. Bam Adebayo (18 PPG) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are key; the Heat won the last meeting 116–113.
Key players & projections
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA) – PTS 18.0, REB 6.0, AST 3.0 (moderate confidence)
Coby White (CHI) – PTS 21.0, AST 5.0, REB 3.0 (high confidence)
Notable injuries: Bulls: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Josh Giddey (Questionable), Tre Jones (Out), Emanuel Miller (Questionable), Jalen Smith (Questionable), Nikola Vucevic (Doubtful), Coby White (Questionable). Heat: Tyler Herro (Out), Kasparis Jakucionis (Available), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Available), Pelle Larsson (Available), Davion Mitchell (Doubtful).
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets – 8:30 p.m. ET
Record context & news: Dallas (19–29) is missing stars like Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. Rookie Cooper Flagg has been productive, but the Mavericks allow 116.7 PPG. Houston (29–17) is 8-1 SU in the last 9 and thrives on limiting turnovers. Kevin Durant (26.5 PPG) and Alperen Şengün lead Houston; the Rockets allow only 110.0 PPG, among the NBA’s best. The injury list has grown for both sides.
Key players & projections
Kevin Durant (HOU) – PTS 27.0, REB 7.0, AST 5.0 (very high confidence)
Cooper Flagg (DAL) – PTS 15.0, REB 8.0, AST 2.0 (moderate confidence)
Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) – PTS 0.0, REB 0.0, AST 0.0 (out) (low confidence)
Josh Giddey (DAL) – PTS 18.0, AST 9.0, REB 7.0 (high confidence)
Alperen Şengün (HOU) – PTS 14.0, REB 12.0, AST 3.0 (high confidence)
Notable injuries: Mavericks: Moussa Cisse (Probable), Anthony Davis (Out), Dante Exum (Out), Kyrie Irving (Out), Miles Kelly (Doubtful), Dereck Lively II (Out), Ryan Nembhard (Probable). Rockets: Steven Adams (Out), Tristen Newton (Out).
Each matchup carries different dynamics, but home court and depth give slight edges to Charlotte and Indiana; Minnesota and Houston appear to have clearer advantages. New Orleans and Chicago may offer value with large spreads. Enjoy a full night of competitive basketball on Jan. 31, 2026.